What does 'Just Transition' mean for Bangladesh?

Despite being one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, Bangladesh is often hailed for its climate adaptation actions and branded as the 'adaptation capital', 'adaptation teacher', or 'adaptation leader' of the world. But the country's adaptation actions shouldn't undermine its mitigation actions?that is bringing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions down as much as possible, as soon as possible.

Although has 2.1 per cent of the world population as its citizens, Bangladesh is responsible only for 0.5 per cent of the global GHG emission. Nevertheless, in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)in 2021, the country has aim sat reducing GHG emissions by 6.73 per cent without any external support and by 21.85 per cent with external support, by 2030.If we look deeper into this mitigation plan, 96.1 per cent of the GHG emission reduction is supposed to take place in the energy sector with power (48.9 per cent), brick kilns (12.47 per cent), and transport (10.86 per cent) as major sub-sectors. Any action to transform these sub-sectors' emissions will drastically affect the people working in them.

This brings in the concept called Just Transition. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO) "A Just Transition means greening the economy in a way that is as fair and inclusive as possible to everyone concerned, creating decent work opportunities and leaving no one behind."

1993 is sometimes identified as the beginning of the notion Just Transition, when activist Tony Mazzocchi urged to create a "Superfund for workers" to support the workers displaced by environmental protection policies. Mainstreaming Just Transition into global climate change discourse however took a while despite continuous pressure from the trade unions. In 2010, Just Transition found itself in the final agreement of the 16thConference of the Parties (COP16) to the UNFCCC in Cancun, Mexico.

In 2015, the world saw three interconnected milestones: (i) the ILO launched its guidelines for a Just Transition; (ii) several UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted elements of Just Transition (e.g., SDG 7: affordable and clean energy, SDG 8: decent work and economic growth, SDG 12: responsible consumption and production, and SDG 13: climate action); and (iii) the Preamble of the 'Paris Climate Agreement'(COP21) included Just Transition.The following COPs continued appreciating Just Transition. For example, the 'Glasgow Climate Pact' of the COP26 (Glasgow, 2021) recognised "the need to ensure just transitions that promote sustainable development and eradication of poverty, and the creation of decent work and quality jobs, including through making financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emission and climate-resilient development."

In the latest COP27 (Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, 2022), the 'Sharm El-Sheikh Implementation Plan' has an exclusive section titled 'VIII. Implementation - pathways to just transition, 'which emphasizes "…. sustainable and just solutions to the climate crisis must be founded on meaningful and effective social dialogue and participation of all stakeholders…."and ".... just and equitable transition encompasses pathways that include energy, socioeconomic, workforce and other dimensions, all of which must be based on nationally defined development priorities …."

Speaking of national priorities, the US$76.18 billion draft Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MCPP, 2021) is apparently the first investment plan of Bangladesh clearly identified "Just Transition of labor and future-proofing industry with technology transfer" as one of six broad visions for change by the current decade. About US$11.63 billion is required to achieve this goal by implementing wide range of activities. In line with this vision, one of the major outcomes of the MCPP is to create 4.1 million new climate-resilient jobs and reduce unemployment to 3.9 per cent by 2030.

The MCPP wishes to connect just transition and modernisation with automation to uncover the innovative competencies of Bangladesh's workforce and improved productivity. It expects to create new jobs by expanding renewable energy and energy efficiency, by scaling up resilient infrastructure, and by introducing resilience bonds, besides providing training and reskilling 3.83 million people by 2030. Through reskilling and gender-transformative labour market initiatives, this plan hopes to change low-productivity and low-wage development to a high-productivity and high-growth one.

The MCPP envisages the Prime Minister-headed Bangladesh National Skills Development Council (NSDC), the National Skills Development Authority (NSDA), and the National Human Resource Development Fund (NHRDF)to coordinate, facilitate and support Just Transition. In 2022, the International Centre for Climate Change and Development and the University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh separately conducted a couple of assessments to understand Just Transition for Bangladesh. These studies identified a good number of short to long-term actions involving major public and private agencies for Just Transition in selected sectors, e.g., ready-made garments, energy, and agriculture.

While Bangladesh has taken some actions in automation, skill development, certification, renewable energy, and health and safety arenas, a big question remains around effective coordination and monitoring of Just Transition. Maintaining our growth to become a high-income country by 2041 under climate crisis while attaining Just Transition by ensuring that affected workers' voices are heard and concerns are addressed remains a big challenge. How Bangladesh harnesses new opportunities, such as Blue Economy, Nature-based Solutions (NbS), and Locally-led Adaptation(LLA) in Just Transition is also to be seen.

Dr. Haseeb Md. Irfanullah is an independent consultant working on environment, climate change, and research systems.

His Twitter handle is @hmirfanullah