Biden presidency: America is back

Declaring "America is back, ready to lead the world, not retreat from it", president elect Joe Biden introduced his cabinet further emphasising it's a team that reflects this spirit. Biden's declaration of "America is back" has caused a global shudder, as such a come back signals for more wars and interventions.

His "national security" team has impeccable establishment background with  Ivy League Schools and right political profiles. His selection of cabinet members has been hailed as a group of "crisis tested leaders". President elect Biden definitely needs such a group in view of his mental fortitude to be able to fulfil his role.

President elect Biden's  nomination of Antony Blinken as the Secretary of State, Jake Sullivan as the  White House National Security Adviser, Michele Flournoy as Defence Secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas as the Secretary of Home Land Security, and similar other very  well know establishment figures in other major positions of power gives a clear indication that the establishment is back in power again and the national security team will maintain status quo.

In fact, Biden's coming to power is also a  return to the status quo as desired by the establishment.   Joe Biden himself  told  his elite  Wall Street campaign donors last year  that in a Biden Presidency " nothing would fundamentally change". Biden is right, his assumption of presidency clearly signals America is well and truly back.

In his choice of cabinet members definitely reflects that. They are all experienced and  expert with work experience with the previous  Democratic administrations under Obama and Clinton. More importantly, most of them have held important positions in think tanks specialised in providing strategic consulting services and in the media.

There will certainly be change in US foreign policy under Biden but the broad thrust of his foreign policy will remain the same like that of President Trump. There will be a more measured tone in public utterances but  very determined and ruthless approach in policy implementation. The corporate media's portrayal of Biden as multilateralist  is very problematic. His efforts to rebuild the Western alliance, his wish to return to the 2015 Iran deal and the 2016 Paris agreement are cited as examples of his multilateralism. But his choice of national security team raises concerns about his multilateralism in action.

Many political observers point out that President elect Joe Biden has packed his cabinet with hawks, sparking fear about the intentions of his administration on foreign policy. There is now a growing belief that under Biden further oxygen will be provided to the US' expeditionary version of militarism, continuing with forever wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan and energising  the system that continues to feed it. He will also rebuild the Western military alliance system that Trump has weakened.

The sprawling military industrial complex now has spread its tentacles into every aspects of life in the US and helps shape the country's foreign policy. The policy of deployment of troops just about anywhere in the world, aerial assassinations including the targeted assassinations using drones and the satellite, economic sanctions causing millions of deaths will continue to be in operation.

Also, Biden shares the trump administration's view of China as the main US strategic competitor. Despite growing and strong  economic relationship between the US and China since mid 1980s and in a way that relationship still largely remains quite operational,  the Pentagon has always been sceptical about that relationship and was instrumental in developing the opposite view of China as a strategic rival.

To understand which direction Biden's policy makers are likely to head, it always helps to see where they are coming from. Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State-designate was a partner at a private equity farm and co-founder of  West Exec Advisors which works with the US Department of Defence and  Israeli Intelligence. He is a well known interventionist who supported the use of military force against Libya in 2011 and sold Biden the criminal project of  fragmenting Iraq into three autonomous states (Shia, Sunni and Kurd) in the wake of 2003 Iraq invasion. He sugar coated it with "unity through autonomy" but in reality Blinken was guided by previous European colonialists' blueprint to further dismember the Middle East to suit the US imperial strategic interests in the region.

Michele Flournoy, Biden's Defence Secretary-designate is a former Pentagon official and a cofounder of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank  funded by among others large armament manufacturing firms like Reythorn, Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop. Her think tank is also a recipient of US$250,000 from the UAE government for the preparation of a report supporting the supply of drones to this autocratic Arab regime. In fact, many consider she is the (wo)man of the UAE in Washington. The UAE also contributed US$1 million for a new CSIS building. She is also a China hawk, believing that beefing up US military capability in the Asia-Pacific region is the answer to the China problem.

Antony Blinken and Michele Flournoy are a team of unashamed war mongers and have backed non-stop warfare. Disturbing information about Blinken and Flournoy has long been  circulating in the press circle for quite some timea bout their direct financial involvements that clearly amount to  conflicts of interest.

John Kerry, Climate Ambassador designate is former Secretary of State, a strong supporter of intervention and slow destruction of Syria and caused the regime change in Egypt by removing the popularly elected government of Morsi by military regime of al-Sisi in 2013.

Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser has had stints at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, ironically funded by mostly military agencies and defence contractors and involved in a strategic consulting firm run by former British spy chiefs. He played a key role in crafting the Iran nuclear deal. He has already in an interview emphasised the importance of continuing military presence in the middle East.

Avril Haines, Director of National intelligence, is a former CIA Deputy Director. She was the chief architect the Drone assassination programme under the Obama administration which killed thousands around the world, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Overall, there is no reason to expect any fundamental change will (in line with Biden's declared policy of "nothing will fundamentally change")  take place in the Biden administration's foreign policy.  Joe Biden and his cabinet members are likely to continue to be who they have always been. The US'  full support  for Israel will continue as before and Antony Blinken already made it clear that  President Joe Biden "would not tie assistance to Israel to things like annexation (i.e., occupied  West Bank) or decisions by the Israeli government with which we might disagree". So also support for Saudis and other Gulf autocratic regimes will continue fueling tensions with Iran. The US-Saudi-Gulf Emiratis nexus' starving  of Yemeni children and people will continue  as well; wars in Syria, Libya and Afghanistan will also continue.

Joe Biden is a well known quantity in American politics. In fact he is also quite well  known in the global political scene for the last four decades. Biden himself has no personal aversion to war. He was staunch supporter of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, he was complicit in the destruction of Libya, now turned into a terrorist haven and the principal route for African migrants moving onto Europe. The only good thing about Biden is that he is a conventional establishment politician and that makes him predictable with his policies and  strategies. That is also very worrisome because it means he will pursue the historical trend of America's expeditionary militarism supported by about 800 military bases around 80 countries in the world.

However, it is the China-American relationship that  poses a very special challenge for Biden. Trump did everything possible for the incoming Biden administration to make that even more difficult. According to the Washington Post the Biden administration is preparing to go along with the Pentagon pressing ahead with efforts to respond to China's rise. Yet it is unlikely Biden will continue the trade war with China, but the Pentagon's strategic objective to halt China long before it reaches strategic parity will remain in full operational mode. That will mean the South China Sea will continue to be a site of intense naval confrontation between China and the US.

China takes a  much longer historical view  with its engagement with the West and that engagement was not  to its advantage. The current hostile posture of the US towards China is not a surprise to China. This is an aspect often overlooked in the West, especially in the US. China has made grounds and wants to have its say without fear on the world stage, but not dominance. China also gained a greater belief in itself from its historical experience in its engagement with the West. China's economic accomplishment is a testimony to learning from that experience. Unlike the Soviet Union in the 1980s, China is not only a strong and vibrant economy but also has strong international standing with stable political leadership. China is not a push over. The US is not yet prepared to acknowledge the changed global order.

It is likely that  the incoming Biden Administration may take a more cooperative attitude in its economic relationship  while maintaining a hostile strategic posture towards China. It is true the Biden administration will be faced with enormous problems and challenges inherited from the Trump administration, but  China remains the most important bilateral issue that will require urgent attention. It is time for the US to recognise the economic and political power of the Chinese state and deal with China realistically in forging a well functioning relationship in view of the US's declining economic clout.

But it is on the domestic front that president elect Biden will face the most formidable challenge because Trumpians will do everything possible to sabotage his agenda. Despite Trump's Attorney General's finding that no electoral regularities took place, Trump still continues with his assertion that "election fraud" did take place and 77 per cent of the people who voted for Trump (57 million voters) believe that.

Simon Wilentz, Professor of History at Prince University wrote that Trump's denial of Biden's legitimacy  "would be an act of disloyalty unsurpassed in American history except by the Southern secession in 1860-61". Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labour and now Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley described the current situation as "cold civil war". Trump will be around for a long time, both Trump and  Trumpism will continue to haunt Biden and his legitimacy.

As Joe Biden is moving surely to take over the presidency of the US, he will not only face a deeply divided country but will also face in all  likelihood unrestricted political warfare on all fronts on every significant issue, domestic or foreign.

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