The tax revenue collection may face a shortfall worth nearly Tk 300 billion in the current fiscal year (FY), 2021-22, although the revenue board has achieved an average 15 per cent monthly growth in collection.
The amount of shortfall is equivalent to revenue mobilised in a month.
Until this May, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Tk 2.52 trillion tax, achieving nearly 15 per cent growth over the corresponding period, according to its provisional data.
As per an estimation, the NBR will be able to collect Tk 3.0 trillion tax revenue in FY 2021-22, which ends on June 30, against its original target of Tk 3.30 trillion.
In June alone, the last month of the FY, the agency will have to collect Tk 770.80 billion tax revenue to achieve the target. The officials concerned deem it difficult, following the last-month revenue collection trend in the previous five years.
However, the officials are optimistic about achieving the target, if a large sum of arrear revenue can be collected from the state-owned entities, including Petrobangla.
In May 2022, the NBR collected Tk 251.64 billion tax revenue against Tk 224.89 billion in the corresponding month last year.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, a noted economist and executive director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), said the revenue board would carry over the shortfall in the upcoming FY, as a modest target of Tk 3.70 trillion has been set for the next year.
Increase in import and its value contributed to the rise in revenue collection (this year).
Without proper reform initiatives, the revenue collection growth would not be more than 12-15 per cent despite having potentials, he opined.
A senior official said tax collection usually boosts up in the last month of a FY, which would also happen this year.
The NBR extended time for submission of corporate tax returns, and withholding tax would be collected to a great extent from various development activities.
The official noted that escalation of commodity prices in the international market helped to generate a significant amount of tax revenue this year.
He, however, said the NBR would be able to surpass its target for the current FY, if it could realise outstanding revenue from the state-owned Petrobangla and other entities.
In the last five-six years, the government used to revise the original tax revenue collection target downward before the end of FY.
This year, the target remains unchanged, as the NBR expressed optimism to reach closer to the target with its intensified efforts, he added.
Until May, import tax collection grew by 26.29 per cent, income tax by 18 per cent, and VAT by 10.30 per cent.