Precise data essential for policymaking

Consumer price index, inflation rate, GDP growth, unemployment rate, etc., are vital indicators of the performance of an economy. But these indicators could be misleading, if they are based on faulty data. So, ensuring accurate data, or for that matter, statistics, on GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, demand and supply, investment and so on are crucial to planning and policymaking. Now the question is, if those in charge of the country's economic management have access to statistics based on genuine data while allocating financial resources for vital sectors of the economy including infrastructure, health, education, etc., or taking other important decisions. These and other related issues came into focus at a recent discussion event titled, 'Macroeconomic challenges and way forward' as part of the Moazzem Hossain Commemorative Lecture, or in short, Lecture, organised in honour of  late Moazzem Hossain. Notably, late Moazzem Hossain was the founder of this newspaper and whose contribution to what was said to be 'highly balanced economic analysis' was reminisced by Dr Debapriya Bhattachariya, a distinguished fellow of the local economic policy think tank, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), as well as the main speaker at the event.

Of the many challenges the economy has recently come up against, its debt sustainability is a vital one. It assumes particular significance as the government has reportedly sought two years' time extension for repayment of the bilateral loan taken against its biggest ever power project, the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP). The repayment of the loan taken from Russia in 2016 is scheduled to start in 2026. Obviously, this does not speak well for a country with its exemplary record on repaying external debts. Unfortunately, it happens at a time when the pressure for repayment of foreign loans, especially those availed from other bilateral lenders is also mounting.

Against this backdrop, it is necessary to have a proper assessment of the country's external debt situation and for that purpose the indispensability of reliable data cannot be overstated. Now one may like to ask if the Economic Relations Division (ERD), an arm of the finance ministry, and the jobs of which include managing external debt and, of course, assessing its sustainability, has the right kind of data required for performing the task effectively and making it known to the public.The question is germane to the issue at hand, because the bureaucrats who look after the divisions and departments of different ministries are often prone to feed their political bosses with the kind of information they like to hear, particularly when it comes to sensitive subjects. Such misgivings about sensitive data may not be out of the question in an environment where journalists are now denied access to a reliable source of quality information, the Bangladesh Bank (BB). It raises questions about the transparency as well as soundness of the various decisions being taken at the policy level. In this connection, it is essential that policymakers are provided with genuine and real time data from sources like the so-called Integrated Budget and Accounting System (iBAS++), which is an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) of the government. Notable here is cost overrun for development projects. This has definitely to do with the lack of adequate and genuine data during the project preparation stage. Such instances of mismatch abound in about every sphere of the economy. So, for the economy to make strides, access of the policymakers to accurate data is pivotal. It rests with the institutions dedicated to perform accordingly.