Bracing for WTO prediction

The WTO (World Trade Organisation) warning that global trade this year and beyond might shrink by up to one third is deeply worrying. Such a plunge is very likely as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, according to most predictions, could wreak the deepest economic recession or downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nations across the continents at the moment are almost clueless about how to make a balance between the tasks of ensuring health safety of their peoples with the devastating impact that the lockdowns have been leaving on their economies.

The pandemic has hit every country, rich and poor, big and small. Millions of production units, shops and business establishments are shut as more than half of the world's population have been passing their days in a state of lockdown. Millions have been rendered jobless. Most developed nations have a built-in system of knowing the number of unemployed people. In the USA alone, more than 17 million people have filed for state unemployment benefits in the past three weeks, which is an all-time record.

There is no recognised way of knowing how many people have lost jobs in Bangladesh since the coronavirus has brought all economic activities to a grinding halt. Some millions of self-employed people and daily wage earners have been going without work for nearly three weeks. Some apparel units have paid wages to their workers as they have received low-interest bearing loans from the government for the purpose. This appears to be a very temporary solution. The sector, in fact, is already in the midst of a very difficult time. Buyers have so far cancelled or put on hold work orders worth more than $3.0 billion, according to industry sources. More buyers are likely to follow suit.

If the global trade shrinks by nearly one-third due to the recession, Bangladesh, invariably, will be hit hard. Its exports and remittances would take the main brunt. The governments and their central banks of affluent countries have started infusing funds in either trillions or billions of dollars into their economies to keep the same afloat. Since Bangladesh economy has been doing well until the outbreak of the deadly COVID-19 disease, it surely will be able to absorb the recessionary shock, to some extent. But a slowdown appears to be inescapable. The country would require supports from the traditional bilateral and multilateral donors to tide over the crisis.

There is no denying that though Bangladesh's track record as far as economic growth is concerned has been excellent in recent years. But in employment generation in particular, its performance has not been that impressive. That was mainly due to stagnancy in private sector investment. No matter what the finance ministry top-brass may claim, there could be a notable drop in economic growth rate and loss of jobs in the coming months.

The government has announced a number of economic stimulus packages for businesses. The pandemic over, naturally, there will be a few more of the same. But the government's main focus should be on stopping the loss of jobs and creating new ones. It will be tough under the given circumstances, but there is no alternative to it.