'Finance and Development', a widely circulated quarterly journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has come up with a novel cover-story in its March-2020 issue. Captioned 'The Long Good Life - Demographics and Economic Wellbeing', it contains as many as 12 articles on this timely theme, ranging from 'Population 2020' (David E. Bloom) and 'The Long Good Life' (Andrew Scott) to 'Reversing Demographic Decline' and 'Getting Older, But Not Poorer' written by renowned academics and specialists on the subject. While conceding that neither demographics nor their implications for individual wellbeing are set in stone, the journal provides an overall assessment of the latest global demographic trend and how to utilise its potentials.
Amazingly, it took more than 50,000 years for mankind to reach the landmark of 1.0 billion global inhabitants in the year 1804. But the 2.0-billion mark was reached soon in 1927, the 3.0-billion mark in 1960, and successive billions have been added every one to two decades since then. The figure reached 6.0 billion in 2000, the current estimate being 7.8 billion. However, the rate of growth has been slowing from over 2.0 per cent in the late 1960s to about 1.0 per cent at the present juncture.
Although per capita income doubled and life expectancy rose by 16 years during the period 1960-2000, the rapid growth in global population has given rise to innumerable challenges. These include generating additional demands for food, clothing, housing, education, infrastructure and employment> It has created more pressure on environment across the globe.
The average individual lived for about 30 years during most of human history up to 1870; but people's life expectancy has risen from 46 to 73 years between 1950 and 2020. Cross-country convergence in life expectancy has also become stronger alongside halving of the fertility rate. However, international migration has not been a powerful demographic force, as over 96 per cent of the global population currently live in their own homelands. The dependency ratio in the developed regions was much lower than in less developed regions (0.68 versus 1.04) in 1990; but as a consequence of varying patterns of fertility decline and population ageing, the ratio has now risen to 0.70 for developed regions against 0.75 for less developed ones. This reversal in pattern suggests that demographics will be more favourable for economic wellbeing of less developed regions compared to the developed ones in the coming decades (David E. Bloom, 2020).
Therefore, rising longevity, falling fertility and larger cohorts of older people have become the dominant demographic trend of the 21st century. The world was populated by over three times as many adolescents and young adults (15-24 years age-group) compared to older people (65 years plus) three decades ago. But according to reliable estimates, these age groups will be roughly at par by 2050.
The main challenge for developing countries like Bangladesh is not merely mobilisation of adequate resources for taking care of the older citizens, but to figure out how well institutions and policies can promote their economic and social security in a financially sustainable manner. Besides, many initiatives could also cushion the ageing population from becoming economic burdens. These may include policy reforms to promote financial sustainability and inter-generational equity of health and pension financing; enhancing the legal age of retirement; increased emphasis on early detection and prevention of diseases through better awareness about the benefits of physical activities; and removing institutional and economic barriers to migration from regions having relatively large working age population.
As opposed to prevalent myth, ageing does not commence at 65 years. The governments should recognise this by putting in place policies for helping the elderly both for today and tomorrow. The new longevity agenda therefore seeks to address the whole lifecycle and assist people to utilise the opportunities longer lives offer. Although it covers most facets of life, education, employment and healthcare are the core areas and the governments have a vital role to play in these.
The importance of supporting older workers becomes evident from the employment statistics. People aged over 55 years accounted for 79 per cent of jobs growth across OECD and 103 per cent in G-7 countries during the period 2008-18. Moreover, as opposed to variations in the size of older population, change in the likelihood of older people working has been found to be the most critical driver of cross-country variations in older workers' employment.
The generosity and availability of pension plans, healthcare support for workers, the industrial structure and types of jobs offered are critical factors in framing promotional policies for higher labour force participation among older workers. These workers tend to favour flexible and part-time work-arrangements even when the wages are low, and this has been put to good use by countries like Japan and Singapore. There is also the need for addressing deep-seated corporate ageism bias that makes the older workers easy targets for firing, and makes it harder for them to get new jobs. The governments should therefore extend disability rights and enact diversity legislation in order to support and protect older workers (Andrew Scott, 2020).
Longevity and technological changes will also result in the increased need for adult education and training by shelving the prevailing educational model of 'learn, earn and retire'. Retraining, reorientation, recuperation and repurposing will be required in a multi-stage life. Side by side with an ageing population, the disease burden is also shifting toward non-communicable diseases like heart disease, cancer and diabetes; these ailments accounted for 71 per cent of global deaths and 78 per cent in middle-income countries in 2016. Consequently, the healthcare providers should initiate a major shift towards preventive healthcare and public education targeted at changing people's behaviour. The governments should also frame policies for supporting those who cannot continue work, while offering incentives to those who can.
Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed is a retired Additional Secretary and former Editor of Bangladesh Quarterly.
