The 27th UN climate summit, COP27, has started at the Egyptian city of Sharm El Sheikh, a tourism spot, located at the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. The aims of this yearly event related to climate change are, like the previous such summits being held since 1992, to reach an agreement on tackling climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To that end rise in global warming has to be limited to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. This limit of 1.5C was set at the 2015's Paris climate agreement (a legally binding international treaty on climate change reached during COP21 held in Paris). But according to the UN's climate scientists, the so-called Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the global temperature has already risen to 1.1C and is heading towards 1.8 C. If the temperature rises 1.7 to 1.8 C above 1850s levels, it will become a grave threat to life on earth, believes IPCC.
So, it is urgent that at the Sharm EL Sheikh climate summit, the rich countries would consider the continuing global temperature rise as an SOS and fulfil their commitment of providing US$100 billion annually as climate mitigation fund for the developing and the least developed countries. Sad to say, only 26 countries have made fresh mitigation commitment so far since COP21 was held in Glasgow last year. Even so, it is believed, the COP27 might make a difference in this regard. However, it is alarming to note at this point that far from reducing fossil fuel use, the chief cause of global warming, all the countries of the world are now in a made race to secure as much fossil fuel as possible as a fallout from the Ukraine war.
As a consequence, it is feared that the hope of limiting the global temperature below 1.5C by 2100 is going to be dashed. In this connection, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)'s forecast made in May this year is indeed disconcerting! It says there is a 50 per cent likelihood of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 C within the next five years. There is also a 93 per cent possibility of one of the years between 2022 and 2026 becoming the warmest on record thereby beating 2016 as the holder of top spot. However, these predictions are about sudden or temporary rises in global temperature, not sustained ones. Still, such instances of spikes in temperatures, though over a short span of time, are a gale warning about trends in the weather pattern which need to be taken seriously by the world leaders. Since 2015, the possibility of such temperature rise was around zero. But during the past five years, it has risen to 10 per cent, while over next five years (2022-26), the chance factor (of the temperature exceeding 1.5 C threshold) is going to be around 50 per cent.
Worse yet, the trend of the temperature temporarily crossing the 1.5 C limit has been steadily on the increase, according to the WMO. Politicians who run the world's rich economies and annually come together at these UN climate summits, should not while away their time playing hide-and-seek with the developing nations about committing funds to fight climate change. They need to realise that life on earth is in an existential crisis due to the ever-worsening state of global warming. So, they should commit concrete actions during these climate forums in order that the impending cataclysm could be averted. Actions include helping the mitigation efforts of the developing countries of the global south so they may survive the extreme weather conditions they have been experiencing recently. So, any fund commitment to this end should not be looked upon as an act of kindness towards the developing and least developed South. On the contrary, they need to consider it as an investment made in their own best interests.
It is hoped, the governments of the world's advanced economies will respond positively to the proposal put forward by the low-and-middle-income countries (MICs) to support them generously in their struggles to overcome the 'loss and damage' suffered during the cyclonic storms, storm surges, floods, downpours and droughts.
Such financial support is more crucial than the long-term ones such as adaptation in the form of building large infrastructures, effecting behavioural shifts such as reducing food waste by individuals, etc. Mitigation measures, on the other hand, would include actions to cushion against impact of climate change by, for example, preventing or reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. But the proposed support for 'loss and damage, would be immediate ones that include succour to the victims of storm, flood, drought, etc to rehabilitate themselves. The rich economies will be required to commit further funds worth trillions of US dollars for the purpose. Shying away from committing the necessary funds will be as good as inviting self-destruction. Rivals on the world stage like the U.S. and China, who are also the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases and, therefore, contributors to the global warming, should attend the Sharm El Sheikh summit and bury their differences and rise to the occasion, so urged Wael Aboulmagd, Special Adviser to the COP presidency.
Since the fate of humanity hangs in the balance, the rich countries which control the world's financial and technological resources are required to show their leadership. The COP27 should not end up as another talking shop, but produce some concrete results. The leading figures among 200 countries attending COP27 should make their commitments on climate action public.
