Bangladesh's 'graduation' stride can be gleaned from SDG reports. That these are typically mixed indicate the relevant growth variables to be in motion. That they inflict costs elsewhere appears to be in their strides.
In casting SDG-specific performances against overall SDG performances, this becomes pertinent 'graduation' information. For example, Bangladesh moved up from the 109th position on the SDG scorecard, out of over 160 countries, with a score of 63.5 in 2021, to the 104th position in 2022, with its score edging up to 64.2. Though marginal, this improvement is headed in the right direction. On the flip side is the inequality measure. Until the 21st century, Bangladesh's scores were invariably below 30 (the higher the score on this Gini Coefficient scale, the more the inequality, with the world's highest being in the 60s, while the lowest scores typically range in the 20s), yet in the 21st century, Bangladesh's score is unable to budge below the 30s. A key 'graduation' message in this 'Decade of Action' appears to be: the wealthier Bangladesh becomes, the more the inequalities.
SDG 10 measures how countries reduce inequalities with the Gini Coefficient (as the above scores described) and the Palma Ratio (which divides income of the top-10 per cent by income of the bottom 40 per cent). As expected, even this score spiralled out of control for Bangladesh, jumping from the more stable levels under 2 during the 20th Century to the eye-raising 21st Century scores of 2.62 in 2005, even the whopping 3.45 ten years later. Since the contextual SDG imperative of 'No one left behind' really translates into keeping everyone above a certain threshold, it does not capture or highlight inequality as effectively as the Gini Coefficient. Nonetheless, the very process of 'developing' in a competitive market invites this, meaning inequality remains part and parcel of the game. Government plans and programmes typically seek to narrow this widening gap to soften social ramifications.
While SDG 10 remains under the microscope constantly, the development context may be more reliably monitored by SDG 9. This is where industrial performances, innovations, and infrastructures get recognised and measured. Several specific indicators help that measurement, from internet and broadband usage to the quality of exported items and how universities have been performing, with emphasis on scholarly publications as well as research and development (R/D).
As with SDG 10, serious SDG 9 challenges remain in Bangladesh's SDG fulfilment and 'graduation' materialisation. Yet how SDG 9 has recognised growth in the internet and broadband usage as well as qualitative improvements in exported items shows how the SDG machine is ticking, more pointedly, in ways facilitating development.
Bangladesh's mega projects shed some light in comprehending the fluctuating dynamics. Begun in fits and starts from 2009, they have grown in size and numbers, increasingly invoking public expenditures. Just a sample from the growing list indicates how much attention is being paid to infrastructural development: Padma Bridge (from 2009, and just completed); Padma Rail Bridge (from 2016, and nearing completion); Bangabandhu Tunnel under the Karnaphuli River in Chattogram (from 2015, and about to be opened); Payra deep-sea port (from 2015), Dhaka Metro Rail (from 2012); Chattogram-Cox's Bazaar Rail (from 2010), among others, to facilitate transportation, and also Matarbari Coal Power Plant (from 2014), Rampura Nuclear Power Plant (from 2016), and Rampal Power Project (from 2009), all indicating the urgency of expanding energy supplies.
Expectations run high across the country that these will reconfigure Bangladesh's ways of life, not just from expanding accessibility, thereby boosting more local production, but also in how the country might benefit, with figures of a 4 per cent GDP climb being aired, of which 1 per cent GDP growth from just the Padma Bridge. Yet, these are precisely the types of projects helping society asymmetrically: the higher up one is, the more the benefits, and the lower-end also reaping benefits though of a smaller scale.
One other type of infrastructure crucial to both 'graduation' and SDG imperatives is intellectual. This one goes beyond just 'education' towards publications and innovations. Also impacting society asymmetrically, publications and innovations would really be at the starting point in Bangladesh presently: though universities have expanded far beyond the 100-threshold, not many get into the Times Higher Education (THE) rankings, often seen as a bellwether of actual intellectual progress. If they do get into those rankings, they do not get high enough.
Over 1,400 universities from over 100 countries have been ranked in the latest THE rankings, but no Bangladesh universities ranked higher than 800. In ranking order, the top dozen include: BRAC University, Daffodil International University, Dhaka University, United International University, Mymensingh Agricultural University, International University of Business, Agriculture and Technology, University of Liberal Arts, Bangladesh, World University Bangladesh, Jashore University of Science and Technology, American International University of Bangladesh, Dhaka International University, and Independent University, Bangladesh. As one sees, both public and private universities find a place, as too the old and new, but particularly the growth of specialised training catches the eye the most under 'graduation' and SDG imperatives.
SDG 9 keeps a tab on this THE rankings, but with the corona virus pandemic introducing another educational playground through online education, one might say Bangladesh education enters perhaps its most tumultuous phase amid the SDG 'Decade of Action'.
Given where Bangladesh started, right at the bottom of the heap, and where it wants to go (a 'developed' country by the 2040s), the scope for innovation should be enormous, particularly in transferring traditional roles and modes into modern counterparts. Unfortunately, we have not registered as many, but just as with the country's universities settling down and innovative platforms being built, the future holds as many promises as the stumbling blocks it faces.
Key among those stumbling blocks will be the SDG barrier to fossil-fuel energy production. Some of our initial mega projects would have to be reconfigured, if not already done, clearly by the end of the 'Decade of Action'. Just as the Ukranian war impinges further construction of our mega projects, so too might the price of fossil-fuel help turn the energy infrastructure in a way that SDG imperatives will not. Both being external influences, meaning, not in Bangladesh's hands, in the final analysis, Bangladesh's 'graduation' and SDG fulfilment do not fully remain in Bangladeshi hands.
Bangladesh's mixed bag can be tamed for the collective benefit of the most; but without tailoring the projects, the country might find both 'graduation' and SDG imperatives generating ghosts.
Dr Imtiaz A. Hussain is Professor, Department of Global Studies & Governance, Independent University, Bangladesh.
