Govt’s 7.4pc growth projection ‘highly optimistic’, says CPD

FE Online Report | Thursday, 29 April 2021

A leading think-tank today (Thursday) terms the government’s forecast that the country’s economy would grow by 7.40 per cent in the current fiscal year (FY21) ‘a highly optimistic projection.’

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) makes the observation at a virtual media briefing on Thursday morning.

“In anticipation of the pandemic slowing down and economic activities reviving, the government had projected a growth rate of 7.4 per cent for FY2021,” said CPD. “This was a highly optimistic projection too.”

CPD argued that with almost 10 months on, the key economic indicators appear to be far less promising than what was earlier projected.

“The fiscal framework continues to be weak in view of poor achievements, more specifically, both in terms of revenue mobilisation and public expenditure,” it said in the paper titled CPD’s Recommendations for the National Budget FY2021-22.

“Available data for the first six months of FY2021 reveal subdued performance as regards several key economic indicators,” it added.

CPD, however, does not provide any growth projection for FY21 like the other international development agencies. 

The think-tank also mentioned that the official GDP growth of 5.20 per cent in the past fiscal year (FY20), a pandemic year, was ‘not so unsatisfactory, particularly because almost all other countries have experienced much more lower if not negative growth.’

[email protected]