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Budget blends into 'white, black, grey'

Economists call it 'unrealistic'


| Updated: June 13, 2020 09:39:00


Budget blends into 'white, black, grey'

Leading economists on Thursday expressed reactions to the new budget, saying some measures are unrealistic and ambitious, while others are good.

They listed 8.2 per cent GDP growth, higher bank borrowing, increased revenue target and inadequate allocations for health and social welfare as unrealistic.

In contrast, they identified block allocation of Tk 100 billion for fighting Covid-19, higher allocation for agriculture, low priority for power and incentives for certain types of garment as right steps.

Dr Ahsan H Mansur, executive director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said that there are some "ambitious" and "unrealistic" issues in the budgetary proposals.

Saying that the tax collection target is 'too high," insisting that it will "never be possible to achieve."

He said the reform measures undertaken for the revenue board are also inadequate to accelerate the revenue receipt growth.

Dr Mansur lauded the block allocation of Tk 100 billion in the budget for tackling the public health emergency, but underlined the importance of dedicating the allocation to Covid-19 treatment.

The government has taken an initiative to hire 2,000 doctors and 6,000 nurses, he said, suggesting the healthcare professionals should be trained up by Chinese experts.

Dr Mansur said the incentives for manufacturing manmade fibre are also in the right direction as it will increase investment in this emerging segment.

Dr Mirza Azizul Islam, an economist and former finance adviser, doubted the big budget would be implemented.

"The GDP size has been pushed up artificially", Dr Islam argued.

He said the World Bank's prediction is the economy may expand slightly higher than 1.0 per cent in the next fiscal year.

"I don't understand then how the government assumes it to be 8.2 per cent, amid the pandemic," he said.

Dr Islam was highly critical of Tk 850 billion bank borrowing.

He said the banking sector has been passing tough times, crippled by liquidity shortage for a long.

"Our industrialisation depends on the banking system and if this channel becomes weaker financially then its funding capacity will drop," he said.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of Dhaka office of the World Bank, viewed budget proposals through a three-pronged prism: white, black and grey.

The white part is clear and in the right direction, the black part is clear but not in the right direction and the grey part remains unclear, he explained.

Dr Hussain said the main white area of the budget proposal is an allocation of Tk 100 billion for combating the coronovirus pandemic.

"We will require huge funds in future to fight the pandemic and this allocation is quite okay."

He identified higher allocation for agriculture needed to improve food security as the second white aspect.

According to Dr Hussain, No 3 white area is the provision of relief for the vulnerable people.

He said the first black part of the budget is inadequate allocation for the health sector. The second black is "inadequate" allocation for social welfare sector under different ministries.

"There will be a staggering number of poor as fallout of the pandemic; they may be even 50 per cent of total population".

Dr Hussain said the allocation of Tk 11.55 billion for helping the new poor is too low.

He said imposition of taxes on the luxury items is another black part of the budget as people will usually consume less-luxury products during the pandemic.

The grey areas are reform measures, Dr Hussain said, adding the budget speech mainly focused on past reforms. "There has been no new specific reform step in the budget," he argued.

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